Curve Progression Risk—Understanding the Numbers
The concept of “progression risk” underpins almost every major treatment decision in scoliosis care. Families want to know: will the curve get worse, and if so, how quickly?
Key Factors in Progression Risk
Important predictors include:
- Initial Cobb angle (larger curves have higher risk).
- Age and skeletal maturity (younger children with more growth ahead are higher risk).
- Curve pattern (certain thoracic or double curves progress more aggressively).
- Family history (relatives with significant scoliosis or surgery).
Risk Categories
Clinicians group patients into low, moderate, or high risk categories. This guides:
- How often to image and review.
- Whether to brace or just monitor.
- When to consider surgical opinions in very high-risk situations.
How Dorsi Calculates Risk
We use:
- Detailed growth and development assessments.
- Imaging trends over time.
- Current research and validated scoring systems.
Risk is communicated clearly so families can make informed decisions.
Changing Risk Over Time
Risk is not fixed. As a child grows, risk may:
- Increase during rapid growth spurts.
- Decrease as they reach skeletal maturity.
Our follow-up schedules adapt accordingly.
Next Steps
If you’ve been told a curve is “at risk” but don’t know what that really means, Dorsi Spinal Institute can provide a detailed progression risk assessment and plan.
Related reading: see our blogs on mild curve progression, high-risk curves, and early screening ages.
Written by
Dr Matthew ABJ Potts BSc MSc DC ISPRM
Clinical Director
Doctor of Chiropractic
Specialist Scoliosis Consultant
Fellow of the British Scoliosis Society
Member of the Scoliosis Association (UK)
Chair of the Clinical Advisory Board at Meloq AB
Member of the International Society of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine
Editorial board member of international journals CICRJ & Rehabilitation Science
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